Tokyo, April 28, 2025 — A baseless rumor predicting a catastrophic disaster in Japan on July 5, 2025, has spread rapidly online, causing a significant decline in tourist bookings and affecting the country’s tourism industry. The rumor, amplified by social media and sensationalist content creators, has led to widespread anxiety among potential visitors, particularly from Asian markets, prompting airlines and travel agencies to adjust operations.
The rumor originated from a Japanese manga featuring a fictional dream about a tsunami. This narrative was escalated by over 1,400 YouTube videos, which collectively garnered more than 100 million views, with some falsely claiming additional threats like volcanic eruptions or meteorite strikes. The misinformation has transcended linguistic and geographic boundaries, with over 200 Chinese-language videos attracting more than 50 million views, alongside similar content in Vietnamese and Thai.
Recent events, including a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar on March 28, 2025, and updated Japanese government estimates for a potential Nankai Trough mega-quake, may have intensified public fears. The government’s forecast, which outlined a worst-case scenario of 298,000 deaths and 270.3 trillion yen ($1.8 trillion) in economic damage, was intended to enhance disaster preparedness, not predict an imminent event. However, China’s embassy in Tokyo issued a notice urging citizens to exercise caution in travel, study, and real estate purchases in Japan, which some Hong Kong media linked to the rumor, further fueling concerns.
The impact on Japan’s tourism sector, a key economic driver, has been notable. In 2024, Japan welcomed a record 36.87 million foreign visitors, contributing 8.14 trillion yen ($50.8 billion) to the economy, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO). However, the JNTO reported a 9.9% drop in tourist arrivals from Hong Kong in March 2025 compared to the previous year, partly attributed to the rumor and shifts in holiday schedules. Hong Kong travel agencies have seen bookings for Japan trips during the 2025 summer season fall by nearly half compared to 2024, with travelers opting for destinations like Thailand, Australia, and Dubai. One agency reported that spring holiday bookings to Japan dropped by 50%, an unprecedented reaction to what industry leaders describe as a “prophecy.”
Airlines have also been affected. Greater Bay Airlines, based in Hong Kong, suspended one weekly roundtrip flight on routes linking Hong Kong with Sendai and Tokushima starting in May 2025, citing low demand. The airline noted that some flights were operating at just 40% capacity, far below the expected 80%. Tokushima, which launched direct flights from Hong Kong in 2023 to boost regional tourism, has been particularly impacted. However, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways reported no significant decline in reservations on their routes.
Efforts to counter the rumor’s impact include promotional campaigns by travel agencies, such as discounted fares, free children’s tickets, and full refunds for cancellations due to earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5. Despite these measures, the decline in bookings persists, with some travelers, including frequent visitors to Japan, postponing trips until after July 2025. A Hong Kong couple interviewed at a Japanese airport expressed plans to delay their usual visits, while another traveler cited the rumor as a reason for choosing Thailand instead.
Experts have emphasized the lack of scientific basis for the rumor. Sekiya Naoya, a disaster prevention expert at the University of Tokyo, stated, “There is no way, with today’s science, to predict exactly when and where an earthquake will occur.” He noted that even if a quake occurs in July, it would be coincidental and not validate the rumor. Miyagi Governor Yoshihiro Murai, addressing concerns on April 23, urged the public to disregard unscientific claims, highlighting their potential to harm tourism.
The Japanese government and tourism industry are now grappling with the challenge of combating misinformation while reassuring visitors. The JNTO’s Hong Kong office is monitoring the situation and collecting data on cancellations. With major events like the Osaka World Expo, expected to attract 28 million visitors from April to October 2025, Japan aims to sustain its tourism momentum. However, the current wave of misinformation underscores the vulnerability of the industry to digital rumors with real-world consequences
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